WILL GRAM GOLD HIT NEW HIGH?
With the coronavirus cases increasing to the new week, the demand for safe havens increased after the markets, whose risk appetite started to be quite weak, and the prices in Gram Gold settle above 390.0. While the upward trend in Gram Gold prices, especially in Ounce Gold prices, brings upward movements, the fact that the USDTRY is in limited pricing limits the buying potential in Gram Gold prices. The increase in the number of cases occurring in the southern and western states of the USA weakens the optimism in the markets and we see that many of the businesses are closed again. In addition, while decisions on travel restrictions remain protected, the fact that China is announcing a new outbreak of the epidemic makes the markets uneasy. Thus, we see that US 10-year bond interest rates fell to 0.64 percent. There is an upward trend in the VIX index, which is described as the fear index. While incentive measures from government and central banks create a slight recovery trend in the markets, another factor that suppresses the rise of precious metal stands out as the continuation of the profitable outlook of the dollar index.
If we look at USDTRY pricing, after the CBRT meeting last week, the appreciation in Turkish Lira suppressed the increases in the exchange rate. However, the increase in demand following the concerns of the coronavirus for the dollar causes an upward trend in the USDTRY to be maintained. It can be said that with the tightness of prices in the pair, which is mostly voluminous, Ounce Gold-based activity in Gram Gold intensifies. Therefore, we see that there is a limited uptrend in Gram Gold prices.
In Gram Gold, with the price keeping its appearance above 390.0 level, rises may continue up to a record threshold of 397.0 resistance. We can see that the purchase potential of precious metal increases especially after this level is exceeded. 380.0 can be considered as short-term support that may occur due to the 397.0 resistance being in a strong resistance position. However, we follow the 50-day exponential moving average level of 375.0 support as the critical transition point of precious metal.