USDTRY MAINTAINS MOVING AT 6.86 LEVEL
While the US markets were closed on the last trading day of the week due to Independence Day, European markets were slightly negative. The new week started with some uneasiness as the coronavirus cases registered a record increase in the USA. However, after the announced macroeconomic data recovered in the US, especially the non-farm employment report, expectations for a recession in the economies were weakened. In addition, it can be said that the optimistic data announced in the Chinese economy kept this perception strong.
Following all these developments, it is noteworthy that the index started the new week with a buy-out view, while the dollar index fell by 0.2 percent to critical 97.0 level. Thus, it is seen that the currencies of the developing countries started the new week with a strong stance against the dollar. In addition, it would not be wrong to say that US 10-year bond interest rates started the day with a rally of 0.70 percent. In the light of all this information, it is seen that the USDTRY, which has been pricing around the 6.85 level for a long time, has been slightly weak in the rise above the 6.88 level.
Looking at the US side, the data agenda is quiet this week. Second wave concerns about coronavirus can be expected to have an impact on pricing in markets. On the domestic side in Turkey, the inflation data was announced on the last trading day of last week, above expectations. Core inflation was also recorded as 11.64 percent. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, in his speech after this data, stated that they are determined to reduce inflation to single digits as soon as possible.
After all these developments, the USDTRY, which remains quite limited in its rises, may continue to run without volume unless the prices can climb above the 6,8650 threshold. However, when the pair exceeds this level, it is also possible to carry its rises to a psychological level of 7.0 with a rapid attack. In the otherwise scenario, if closures above 6.86 level are not successful, we follow the 50-day exponential moving average level of 6.88150 support below.