USDTRY GOING UPWARD IN NEW WEEK
US President Donald Trump's statement that the full abolition of tariffs is out of the question has had a negative impact on risk appetite in the markets. Last week, although the Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced that it had agreed with the US for the mutual abolition of tariffs, the White House was optimistic about a part of the trade agreement between the US and China and said that if the agreement was reached, some tariffs could be removed. However, tariff uncertainty in the new week and fragility in global stock markets may weaken the demand for emerging market currencies. Also, we see that two protesters were shot by the police in Hong Kong and the tension in the protests increased. Looking at the US side, New York Fed President Williams pointed out that the economy is in a good place with its well-positioned monetary policy and maintains its positive course. The sudden increase in US 10-year bond yields also added value to the dollar assets.
If we look at the domestic side, it can be said that the positive outlook formed after Fitch on Turkish Lira has been distributed to some extent. US National Security Adviser Robert C. O'Brien's remarks over new sanctions on Turkey on S-400 purchasing came to the fore as an important development and increased the tension on the Turkish Lira. The markets also wait for the meeting between President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Trump on November 13 in Washington. Decisions about the future of sanctions are important in this meeting.
The USDTRY, which started the new week with the potential for a slight upward trend due to the slight weakening in the Turkish Lira, is seen to increase the upward trend of the prices with the support of the 50-day exponential moving average level. We can see that purchases in USDTRY continue to increase especially with the closing above 5.80 level. In a formation above this level, it should be noted that the 5.94 resistance is the main point of resistance for the continuation of the increases. Today, both the US and domestic markets are calm in terms of data flow. The current account balance will be followed on Tuesday. Despite the possibility of a premium in Turkish Lira assets, it can be monitored as 5.70 main support points below.