Price squeeze at EUR/TRY

Hand holding American dollar banknotes isolated on black background - Görsel
Price squeeze at EUR/TRY

Turkish Statical Institute (TUIK) on Wednesday revealed that the unemployment rate realized as 14.7 percent in February. The number of unemployed persons aged 15 years old and over increased by 1 million 376 thousand to 4 million 730 thousand persons in the period of February compared with the same period of the previous year. The country’s budget revenues soared by 18.9 percent to hit 275.95 billion Turkish liras ($46.5 billion) year-on-year in the January-April period. While these macroeconomic data increased the tension on Turkish Lira assets, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu rejected the S-400 delay claims. While Cavusoglu’s remarks drew the attention of the markets, the explanations regarding the local elections will again lead to an increase in domestic political tension. The CBRT inflation expectation survey, which will be announced today, may lead to volatility on the EUR/TRY parity. In international scale, the market volatility had increased after U.S. President Donald Trump announced higher tariffs on Chinese goods. Yesterday, Trump announced that it could delay tariffs for automobiles. Brexit process and also the german economy data also increased the pressure on thew Euro assets.

When we have a technical outlook, we see that the prices over the 6.70 level are insisting on maintaining the upward trend. In particular, the downward breaking of this level may cause the pair to decline until support for its 50-day exponential moving average of 6.52. However, we expect that the pair will be able to overcome the resistance zone consisting of 6.95 and 7.04 points due to the fact that the pair will accelerate their recovery with a strong support level of 6.70.