1- Russia - Ukraine War
Russia warned Western Countries once more regarding weaponry support to Ukraine. US Congress approved 33 Billion US Dollars aid to Ukraine. This aid package includes financing of foreign bonds, military aid, medical aid, reconstruction of devastated villages and many more. 9th of May is Russia's Victory day and Vladimir Putin wants to achieve some critical goals before that day and announce that on the Victory Parade in Moscow. We may see more clashes to reach this goal.
2- US Economy Shrunk
The US Economy has shrunk 1.4% in the first Quarter of 2022. The main reason behind it is the trade deficit as it is growing each month. Inflation is rising and it is expected for the economy to grow but it didn't happen. So many people see this as a big risk for Stagflation. The FED will have to be more careful in their decisions next week.
3- Lockdown in Shanghai EndsSome 12 Million people in Shanghai are now allowed to leave their homes as they are in low risk areas. This decision has pushed Energy Commodity prices to higher levels. If we don't see another lock-down in Shanghai or Beijing. Energy prices can go higher with demand issues.
4- Consumer Confidence in Germany
The Consumer Confidence in Germany has sunk to a record low level. Tension between Russia and Ukraine has put energy dependent Germany in a chaotic situation. Rising Energy and food prices caused sharp decline in consumer confidence and this may lead to recession in the coming months.
5- No-Growth in Europe
On Friday France, Spain, Italy and Germany have reported their 2022 First Quarter GDP Growth numbers and there is almost no-growth. High energy cost is the biggest obstacle to growth in Europe. Short Term and Medium Term volatility because of the war in Ukraine will affect Europe's growth significantly. And we can see contraction in the coming quarters.
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