Week Ahead 25.04.2022

Week Ahead 25.04.2022

Week Ahead 25.04.2022

Week Ahead

1- Russia - Ukraine War

President Biden and Secretary Blinken visited Ukraine. On this visit the most important part was promises. Biden has promised to supply all needed weapons until Russia steps back and leaves Ukraine soils. With these statements we can predict that this war will be something longer than anticipated. And that will affect all markets for a long time.

2- China Covid Lock-DownsThe new cases reported in Beijing are getting higher and people started to feel lock-down pressure similar to Shanghai. This lock down fear caused a sharp sell off in Chinese stock Markets and energy commodities globally. 

3- US 10 Year Bonds

US 10 Year Bond Real Yields are increasing to 3% and this means a lot of extra interest payments to bondholders. If the US can't raise the short term income with more taxes or other ways we will see more aggressive borrowing. That may cause a sharper recession in coming months. 

4- Macron's Re-Election French President Emmanuel Macron has been re-elected in the second round. He got 58% of the votes but that is kind of expected. Unexpected thing is Le Pen's %41 support from French voters. This is the highest level of the Far Right in France and that means people are not completely satisfied with Macron. The Ukraine war and these internal issues are weakening EUR in the long term. 

5-2022 1st Quarter GDP Numbers

We will receive a lot of major economies' 2022 first quarter gdp growth data this week. And these data releases will be critical for the rest of the year. The countries started to tighten their economies in the first quarter so the results will be critical for Central Bankers. 

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