Week Ahead

Week Ahead

Week Ahead

Last week, Russia and the West had heated exchanges regarding Russia’s potential invasion of Ukraine. Markets seemed to move in a risk-on/risk-off type of trading fashion with each headline.

 

Oil rises according to Russian-Western diplomacy

Oil prices rose on Monday as fresh diplomatic efforts to resolve the Ukraine crisis provided some relief from supply concerns that have kept oil prices near $100 a barrel. Brent crude futures were up 0.4%. WTI crude futures rose 0.5%.

French President Emmanuel Macron said on Monday that U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin have agreed in principle to a summit over Ukraine, but the Kremlin said there were no immediate plans for a meeting.

 

What’s Happening in Germany?

Germany's Bundesbank: “German economy probably shrinking again this quarter”

"Unlike in previous waves of the pandemic it is not just activity in the services sector that is likely affected by containment measures and behavioural changes," Bundesbank explained in its publication. "Instead, pandemic-related absence from work is likely to dampen economic activity markedly also in other sectors."

German Government Spokesperson: “We are in an extremely dangerous situation”

"French foreign minister will discuss Ukraine with German foreign minister after the cabinet meeting."

"Not aware of any consideration of sanctions against Belarus."

 

Ukraine Crisis Continue

Ukraine's Danilov: “We do not conduct any military operations against civilian population”

Danilov further noted that they need to participate if US President Joe Biden were to have a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

According to Russian state-controlled media citing Russian military officials on Monday, Russian troops and border guards prevented Ukrainian "saboteurs" from breaching the Ukraine/Russian border. Five people who tried to cross the border were killed, the officials said, and Ukrainian armed vehicles were also destroyed in Russia's Rostov region.

Ukrainian military forces subsequently denied claims it had sent saboteurs and called the story fake news. The latest headlines add to fears that Russia is building up a litany of false (as the West and Ukraine claim) pretexts for military action against Ukraine, as NATO leaders continue to warn that a full-scale Russian invasion may be imminent.

 

Giant client data leak of Credit Suisse

The New York Times said the leaked data covered more than 18,000 accounts collectively holding more than $100 billion.

Credit Suisse rejects allegations of wrongdoing.

The bank said it had received "numerous inquiries" from the consortium in the past three weeks and reviewed many of the accounts in question.

EU Parliament's top group suggests blacklisting Switzerland after Credit Suisse leaks.

 

Movements to watch in Bitcoin this week

Bitcoin heads into the last week of February lower but shows signs of strength as a key support level holds.

After a nervous few days on macro and crypto markets alike, BTCUSD is below $40,000, but signs are already there that a comeback could be what starts the week off in the right direction.

  1. The main story for Bitcoin traders this week comes from outside — the post-COVID economic outlook and worries over relations with Russia. The first comes in the form of how the Fed will respond to soaring inflation and, more specifically, whether its hinted interest rate hikes will start in March as anticipated.
  2. BTC’s price takes aim at CME futures gap. With that, it’s been tough for the average Bitcoin day trader this month.
  3. Amid disbelief that some are choosing to sell their BTC now after holding through several months of downside, data shows that big players are smelling a bargain.

 

Economic Data

Although Monday is a US holiday, there will still be preliminary looks at Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs from around the world.  In addition, on Friday the US will release the Fed’s favorite measure of inflation, Core-PCE.

Stay tuned for insights on hot topics and latest trends in the financial markets. Don't forget to follow us on social media. 

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